Expert analyzes Russia’s war on Ukraine as a nuclear crisis, detailing its aims and deterrence factors.
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M. Budjeryn explains that she views the Russia-Ukraine war as a nuclear crisis because Russia constantly threatens to use nuclear weapons. She emphasizes that attention should be paid not only to what prompts Russia to threaten nuclear use but also to what prevents it. She notes that dozens of nuclear threats have been made since the start of the war, and while not every conflict involving nuclear powers is a nuclear crisis, Russia’s actions fit the definition. Budjeryn argues that Russia’s use of nuclear rhetoric serves political goals, including influencing Western opinion and preventing direct Western military intervention. She suggests that even without Russia being a nuclear power, Western involvement in the conflict would likely be greater. Furthermore, she states that Russia’s threats aim to prevent even indirect Western aid to Ukraine, though this has been partially achieved. Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine in November 2024 outlines scenarios for nuclear use, such as mass airspace attacks or large-scale conventional war when the state’s existence is threatened. Budjeryn concludes that while nuclear rhetoric creates significant noise, the actual risk of nuclear use remains. Separately, Italian journalist Silvia Martelli and EU officials are concerned about Russia’s irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and threats, with the EU urging Russia to adhere to past commitments against nuclear war.
