Expert analyzes Russia’s war on Ukraine as a nuclear crisis, detailing its aims and deterrence factors.
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M. Budjeryn explains that she views the Russia-Ukraine war as a nuclear crisis because Russia constantly threatens to use its nuclear arsenal. She emphasizes that attention should be paid not only to what prompts Russia’s threats but also to what prevents their use. The expert notes that Russia’s constant nuclear rhetoric, which has been present since the start of the war, serves several political goals: influencing Western opinion, damaging unity among Western nations, and intimidating Ukrainians. She argues that while Russia’s nuclear status is a factor, other elements contribute to deterrence. Budjeryn also points out that Russia uses these threats partly to prevent direct Western military involvement and to hinder indirect support for Ukraine. Furthermore, she suggests that the deterrent against Russia using its nuclear weapons involves a combination of strong warnings from the US (including potential conventional retaliation) and statements from strategic partners like China, indicating they would not support Russia if it used nuclear weapons. Regarding international reactions, Italian politicians have expressed concern over global nuclear security and Russian threats, while EU officials reiterate calls for Russia to adhere to past commitments against nuclear war.
