Russian hybrid warfare targets EU infrastructure via organized crime networks for political aims.
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Russia is conducting hybrid warfare against EU allies through various means, including drone incidents and media manipulation, alongside sabotage targeting administrative, transport, and energy infrastructure. A joint study by the Dutch ICCT and Slovak GLOBSEC links at least 110 such incidents in EU countries from January 2022 to July 2025 to Russia, with ninety-eight cases successfully prosecuted and eleven arrested. The most frequent targets were in Poland and France. Investigations have led to the arrest of 135 perpetrators, mostly from former Soviet states, who were often young men with criminal backgrounds recruited via Telegram for payment. The study suggests Putin’s Russia has utilized criminal networks from the chaotic 1990s for its purposes, similar to how it bypasses Western sanctions. Authorities recommend broadening the perception of hybrid threats to include non-state actors, improving monitoring of platforms used, and increasing coordination among member states. Incidents are also being reported in Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, with notable events like large refinery fires in Hungary and Poland’s railway sabotage. The involvement of Russian companies like Lukoil complicates matters, as some suspects are Ukrainian citizens, and the Nord Stream incident suggests activities might not solely originate from foreign powers or Kyiv; however, analysts strongly point to Russia, noting that in some cases, financial trails help identify origins, while other actions may be responses to attacks on Russian refineries or attempts to influence energy prices and support for Ukraine.
