Europe’s post-2022 gas reliance on LNG risks fossil fuel lock-in, shifting dependence from Russia to volatile global markets.
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Since the start of the Ukraine war, the European Union has rapidly increased its liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacity by installing Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs), transforming an emergency response into a long-term fossil fuel lock-in that could affect European energy choices until 2050. Italy is positioning itself as a Mediterranean gas hub through projects in Piombino and Ravenna, while also increasing pipeline imports from Algeria. This strategy allows Italy to export gas to Central and Northern Europe, benefiting countries like Germany and the Czech Republic, although their reliance on Italian flows has decreased with new LNG terminals. The global supply chain for this LNG involves significant environmental and social costs, such as underestimated greenhouse gas emissions in Mozambique’s Coral South FLNG project and the creation of “sacrifice zones” due to pollution from US Gulf Coast liquefaction plants. This shift replaces dependence on Russia with a reliance on the United States, exposing Europe to new geopolitical volatilities. A lack of public debate persists due to powerful economic interests surrounding these issues. Ultimately, continuing to rely on LNG risks stalling the energy transition by prioritizing immediate energy security over long-term climate goals, placing financial burdens on citizens while tethering Europe’s future to an unstable and politicized global market; the true alternative is reducing dependence on gas itself.
