Catalan elections show decline in separatist support; socialists gain ground, shifting regional politics.
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The Catalan regional elections on May 12th saw a victory for the center-left socialists from PSOE, with Salvador Illa leading the triumphant party. Parties advocating for an independent Catalonia lost their majority in the local parliament, meaning that for the first time since 2012, the Catalan parliament will be dominated by pro-Spanish parties. Political analysts note a visible decline in support for separatism. The socialist victory was clear, while the most successful separatist formation, Junts+Puigdemont, received twenty-five percent fewer votes than before. While it is difficult to determine if this marks the end of the separatist era, it represents a significant shift. A new government will be formed in Catalonia led by the winning socialists, who may form a coalition with the left-wing bloc Comuns Sumar or govern independently, though they will likely need some tolerance from the Catalan Republican Left (ERC). There are signs of resignation among ERC leaders due to the perceived lack of responsibility for supporting a socialist government under Illa, who is described as moderately leftist and Spanish nationalist. The political future of Carles Puigdemont remains uncertain; although his formation gained support, it ultimately lost votes. A potential shift in relations between socialists and separatists could impact Madrid. If Salvador Illa is confirmed as the head of the Catalan government, a general election across Spain might occur this autumn. Reasons for the separatist decline include voter fatigue from constant mobilization and conflict with Madrid, along with a more effective anti-separatist campaign and an improving economy. Besides socialists and Junts, conservative parties performed relatively well; the pro-Spanish People’s Party gained support by absorbing voters from the declining Ciudadanos party, while Aliança.cat, a far-right separatist group, also secured seats in the Catalan parliament. Conversely, more left-wing parties weakened, with ERC losing voters to Junts and socialists, and the Sumar bloc and CUP coalition also showing weakness.
