European birth rates are falling across the continent; populist policies alone fail to reverse demographic decline due to instability and housing issues.
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Europe as a whole is not dying demographically, but population growth is increasingly driven by immigration. Ireland and Norway are noted for their demographic success, combining pro-natalist policies with openness to the future, though both struggle with housing affordability. Fertility rates across Europe are declining; Italy’s has hit a historic low of 1.18 children per woman, while in countries like France and Balkan nations, it is below the replacement level of 2.1, recently around 1.6. While some conservative populist governments, such as those in Hungary (Orbán) and Poland (PiS), invested heavily in pro-natalist policies to reverse this trend, they have not achieved sustained success at the replacement level. Despite increases from their initial low points, both countries still face population decline due to emigration of young people. Research indicates that while financial incentives appeal to potential parents, concerns about political instability and the overall direction of the country deter them. Similar issues exist in Poland regarding climate and ineffective family policies. Experts suggest that declining fertility is complex, involving factors beyond negative ones, such as changing female expectations and greater self-realization options, alongside widespread housing shortages across Europe. Ultimately, financial support alone is insufficient; young people need to feel they have a viable future in the country for parenthood not to be postponed indefinitely or abandoned.
