Ukraine faces war exhaustion; peace depends on US policy amid Russian advances and political shifts.
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Ukraine is facing exhaustion due to low manpower, ammunition, and morale as the war against Russia may be unwinnable militarily for now, with 52% of Ukrainians wanting negotiations soon. The outcome heavily depends on Washington’s actions, particularly concerning President-elect Donald Trump, whose statements and nominations have unsettled Kyiv. Concerns exist that a future administration might push for freezing the front lines, which both sides are likely to reject given Russia’s stated goals of territorial gains and annexations. Russia’s advances give it leverage in potential peace talks, while Ukraine insists any agreement must guarantee its independence and restore occupied territories. Ukraine is attempting to influence the incoming U.S. administration by promoting ideas like Ukrainian troops replacing U.S. forces in Europe. European allies, notably Poland, are preparing contingency plans due to concerns over reduced American commitment. Ultimately, ending the war requires a path that includes NATO membership for Ukraine and reclaiming Russian-occupied land, leveraging U.S. economic tools against Moscow.
